EXCESS DEATHS FROM ALL CAUSES AND BY COVID-19 IN BRAZIL IN 2020 (preprint)

ObjectiveTo estimate the 2020 all-cause and COVID-19 excess mortality according to sex, age, race/color, and state, and to compare mortality rates by selected causes with that of the five previous years in Brazil. MethodsData from the Mortality Information System were used. Expected deaths for 2020 were estimated from 2015 to 2019 data using a negative binomial log-linear model. ResultsExcess deaths in Brazil in 2020 amounted to 13.7%, and the ratio of excess deaths to COVID-19 deaths was 0.90. Reductions in deaths from cardiovascular diseases (CVD), respiratory diseases, and external causes, and an increase in ill-defined causes were all noted. Excess deaths were also found to be heterogeneous, being higher in the Northern, Center-Western, and Northeastern states. In some states, the number of COVID-19 deaths was lower than that of excess deaths, whereas the opposite occurred in others. Moreover, excess deaths were higher in men, in those aged 20 to 59, and in black, yellow, or indigenous individuals. Meanwhile, excess mortality was lower in women, individuals aged 80 years or older, and in whites. Additionally, deaths among those aged 0 to 19 were 7.2% lower than expected, with reduction in mortality from respiratory diseases and external causes. There was also a drop in mortality due to external causes in men and in those aged 20 to 39 years. Furthermore, reductions in deaths from CVD and neoplasms were noted in some states and groups. ConclusionThere is evidence of underreporting of COVID-19 deaths and of the possible impact of restrictive measures in the reduction of deaths from external causes and respiratory diseases. The impacts of COVID-19 on mortality were heterogeneous among the states and groups, revealing that regional, demographic, socioeconomic, and racial differences expose individuals in distinct ways to the risk of death from both COVID-19 and other causes.

Population-based seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 is more than halfway through the herd immunity threshold in the State of Maranhao, Brazil (preprint)

Background: Few population-based studies on the prevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been performed to date, and most of them have used lateral flow immunoassays with finger-prick, which may yield false-negative results and thus underestimate the true infection rate. Methods: A population-based household survey was performed in the State of Maranhao, Brazil, from 27 July 2020 to 8 August 2020 to estimate the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 using a serum testing electrochemiluminescence immunoassay. A three-stage cluster sampling stratified by four state regions was used. The estimates took clustering, stratification, and non-response into account. Qualitative detection of IgM and IgG antibodies was performed in a fully-automated Elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV-2 electrochemiluminescence immunoassay on the Cobas e601 analyser (Roche Diagnostics). Findings: A total of 3156 individuals were interviewed. Seroprevalence of total antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 was 40.4% (95%CI 35.6-45.3). Population adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions was higher at the beginning of the pandemic than in the last month. SARS-CoV-2 infection rates were significantly lower among mask wearers and among those who maintained social and physical distancing in the last month compared to their counterparts. Among the infected, 62.2% had more than three symptoms, 11.1% had one or two symptoms, and 26.0% were asymptomatic. The infection fatality rate was 0.17%, higher for males and advanced age groups. The ratio of estimated infections to reported cases was 22.2. Interpretation: To the best of our knowledge, the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 estimated in this population-based survey was the highest and the closest to the herd immunity threshold reported to date. Our results suggest that the herd immunity threshold is not as low as 20%, but at least higher than or equal to around 40%. The infection fatality rate was one of the lowest reported so far, and the proportion of asymptomatic cases was low.